Equitable Transition Away From Fossil Fuels (E-TAFF) Calculator

show them anyways in dev mode

Temperature Goal

Which end-of-century, [[overshoot-and-return|overshoot-and-return]] temperature goal should we aim for? ([[Why only these options?|temp-goal-options]])

What temperature goal – after a now-inevitable period of [[overshoot|overshoot-and-return]] – should we aim for by 2100? ([[Why only these options?|temp-goal-options]])

The world is now on the verge of crossing the 1.5°C warming threshold, because of decades of delayed climate action, and continued investment in fossil fuels. But every fraction of a degree increases dangerous climate impacts. It is important to limit the amount by which we exceed 1.5°C, and [[for how long|overshoot-and-return]].

Temperature Goal

Which end-of-century, [[overshoot-and-return|overshoot-and-return]] temperature goal should we aim for? ([[Why only these options?|temp-goal-options]])

[[return to 1.5°C|1p5-50]] [[return to 1.4°C|1p4-50]]

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

How much should we [[rely on CDR|cdr-reliance-tooltip]] for the temperature goal?

One possible approach is to rely on future generations to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, either to counter the effect of ongoing emissions, and/or to ultimately reduce temperatures below a peak level. But assuming this will happen carries major [[risks|cdr-risk-tooltip]], and CDR technologies will have significant [[impacts|cdr-impacts-tooltip]] on people and nature. It is widely agreed in the scientific community that the best course is to reduce emissions in the first place, and that we should minimise reliance on future CDR.

How much should we [[rely on CDR|cdr-reliance-tooltip]] to achieve the temperature goal above?

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

How much should we [[rely on CDR|cdr-reliance-tooltip]] for the temperature goal?

[[Ecosystem restoration only|ecosystem-restoration]] [[50% of “feasible potential”|cdr-50pct-max]] [[75% of “feasible potential”|cdr-75pct-max]]

Dependence Weights

Which social impacts of the transition are most critical?

In countries whose economies depend heavily on fossil fuels, more time will be needed for phaseout, as moving too fast could cause unemployment, reduced public services, and energy poverty. [[Poorer countries|poorer-countries]] will be less able to overcome the challenges of dependence.

Which social impacts of the transition are most critical? What is the relative importance of the different aspects of a country’s dependence on fossil fuel extraction:

[[Jobs|dep-jobs]]

[[Government Revenue|dep-revenue]]

[[Energy Supply|dep-energy]]

How much fairness (%)

How much should the modelled timelines [[reflect fairness|gf_share_tooltip]]?

50%

International finance

How should international finance flows be determined?

Poorer countries will be unable to phase out fossil fuel extraction without international finance. Provision of international finance by richer countries is a central element of fairness in climate action, enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

How should international finance flows be determined -- by countries' responsibility for causing climate change, by their capability to pay, or some balance of both? Choose the balance below, then set since when historical emissions should count, and how much of each country's own development needs should be safeguarded first.

Responsibility Capability

Historical Emissions since

[[When|intl-support-hr-start-date]] start counting historical emissions?

Responsibility is measured by a country’s historic greenhouse gas emissions. [[When|intl-support-hr-start-date]] should we start counting these emissions?

Historical Emissions since

[[When|intl-support-hr-start-date]] start counting historical emissions?

Responsibility is measured by a country’s historic greenhouse gas emissions. [[When|intl-support-hr-start-date]] should we start counting these emissions?

[[1850|intl-support-hr-start-date-1850]] [[1950|intl-support-hr-start-date-1950]] [[1990|intl-support-hr-start-date-1990]]

Development Needs

Safeguarding Needs in capability measure

Capability is measured by a country’s available income. In judging what is “available”, should we include even the incomes people need to meet their needs, or only incomes after meeting these needs is safeguarded?

Development Needs

Safeguarding Needs in capability measure

[[Ignore Development Needs|intl-support-prog-none]] [[Safeguard survival needs|intl-support-prog-low]] [[Safeguard basic needs|intl-support-prog-medium]] [[Safeguard decent living needs|intl-support-prog-high]]

Advanced Settings

Chart X-Axis Scale

Choose 2030–2040 magnification or even scale for x-axis.

The main charts on the Results page have an uneven scale on the horizontal axis, magnifying the period from 2030 to 2040 to make it easier to see the many countries phasing out in this period. You can use the menu below to revert to a normal, evenly-scaled axis.

Jitter Control

Adjust or turn off y-axis jitter below.

The first graph on the Results page shifts all the points very slightly to prevent them overlapping - this is called jitter. You can stop it doing so by selecting ‘none’ in the menu below, or decrease the amount by which they are shifted.

Last Year for Phasout

Select year at which phaseout timelines are capped (the 2050 option results in some unsolvable combinations).

By default, the model caps phaseout timelines at 2075, and does not allow slower phaseouts than this. It does so for three reasons. First, as alternative technologies replace fossil fuel demand, the need (and opportunity) for extracting fossil fuels will eventually disappear, making the question of phaseout timeline moot beyond a certain point. Second, countries that extract fossil fuels will benefit in any case from diversifying their economies away from reliance on single commodities, especially in light of long-term falling demand. And third, things are more uncertain, the further we project into the future: it is hard to imagine what the world will look like in several decades’ time.

The menu below allows users to change that maximum time horizon. Note that changing this will affect not only the most dependent countries (whose timelines are directly capped by it), but also other countries as it changes the remaining amount of fossil fuel budget available to them. Note that the model can’t be solved with “2050” for last year, “1.5°C” for temperature and “75%” for CDR; therefore this combination can’t be selected.

2075

205020752100

(App Version: v1.0.3; Data: 2026-10-12)

Results Detailed Country Results International Finance Advanced Settings Methodology About

Adjust parameters in the sidebar and press Submit to load results.

Debugging information

Time Horizon to Effectively End Fossil Fuel Extraction

Global Fossil Fuel Extraction (Embedded and Process Emissions) Over Time

Content below is only shown in developer mode

Loading…

Select one or more countries above to see their details.

Loading…

PLACEHOLDER

Loading…

Add Advanced Settings to Sidebar

Chart X-Axis Scale

Choose 2030–2040 magnification or even scale for x-axis.

Jitter Control

Adjust or turn off y-axis jitter below.

Last Year for Phasout

Select year at which phaseout timelines are capped (the 2050 option results in some unsolvable combinations).

2075

205020752100

Phaseout costs and how they are shared

Poorer countries have fewer resources to spend on enabling a just transition. In addition, there are more pressing demands on their resources to achieve unmet development needs such as providing healthcare or education or lifting their people out of poverty.

However, the actual cost of the phaseout is not known. It will depend, for example, on countries’ decisions about what alternative sectors to build out to replace fossil fuel extraction’s role in the economy. Therefore, in this calculator, we let users make a very rough estimate, based on a few indicators, to illustrate the size of the needed finance.

What level of financial resources should we assume to be needed globally for phasing out fossil fuel extraction?

Global total annual phaseout costs

—

More information

To help inform your assumption, consider that fossil fuel phaseout requires three types of investments: in [[clean energy|clean-energy]], in [[alternative economic sectors|alternative-sectors]], and in [[just transitions|just-transition]].

Country-specific estimates are available only for a few countries, and none of them consider all costs of a full phaseout of all fossil fuel extraction. Global estimates can also give us an approximate indication, but they are mainly restricted to the clean energy portion of the costs.

Based on modelling, the International Energy Agency estimates that to limit warming to 1.5°C, clean energy investments of USD 4.5 trillion per year are needed by 2030. Presently, only USD 2 trillion per year invested in clean energy, out of the USD 3 trillion for energy generally. ([[[Caveats](https://app.hex.tech/019b8fa3-e01c-7002-aa8c-7bbd84aa6232/app/Fair-Fossil-Fuel-Extraction-Phaseout-032TgGsAJJPiKb4ttWQU5N/latest#%23)|IEA-energy-caveats]])
Based on combining countries’ own costings, the UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance estimates that achieving the energy-transition portion of developing countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions would cost between USD 2.4 and 3.3 trillion per year by 2030. ([[[Caveats](https://app.hex.tech/019b8fa3-e01c-7002-aa8c-7bbd84aa6232/app/Fair-Fossil-Fuel-Extraction-Phaseout-032TgGsAJJPiKb4ttWQU5N/latest#%23)|SCF-NDC-caveats]])
In 2025, the oil and gas industry invested USD 570 billion, and the coal industry about USD 150 billion, in exploration and extraction, according to the International Energy Agency. ([[[Caveats](https://app.hex.tech/019b8fa3-e01c-7002-aa8c-7bbd84aa6232/app/Fair-Fossil-Fuel-Extraction-Phaseout-032TgGsAJJPiKb4ttWQU5N/latest#%23)|energy-investment-caveats]])
Based on just transition programmes in Poland, Spain, the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Germany, a Maryland University study estimates an average cost per worker of USD 61,000, comprising rehiring support, income compensation, and health support. Extended across the 18 million workers in fossil fuel extraction worldwide, this would imply a total of USD 1.3 trillion, over the course of the transition. ([[[Caveats](https://app.hex.tech/019b8fa3-e01c-7002-aa8c-7bbd84aa6232/app/Fair-Fossil-Fuel-Extraction-Phaseout-032TgGsAJJPiKb4ttWQU5N/latest#%23)|just-transition-caveats]])

We also need to make an assumption about what proportion of these costs falls in poorer countries that need international support. To do this, shall we assume a country’s costs are proportional to how much fossil fuels it extracts ([[in either energy or emissions terms|conversion]]), or to how many people work in fossil fuel extraction?

To illustrate how this affects the choice, we can see how much of the cost will be in [[[poorer countries that will need some support](https://app.hex.tech/019b8fa3-e01c-7002-aa8c-7bbd84aa6232/app/Fair-Fossil-Fuel-Extraction-Phaseout-032TgGsAJJPiKb4ttWQU5N/latest#%23)|poorer-countries]]:

Cost allocation basis

Cost allocation basis How much fossil fuels it extracts (in energy terms)? How much fossil fuels it extracts (in emissions terms)? How many people work in fossil fuel extraction? The average of the above three?

Share of…

Results – Sharing the costs

In this framework, phaseout costs are shared relative to countries’ [[ability to pay|capacity]], and to their [[responsibility|responsibility]] for causing climate change through past emissions. This is in line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Rio Declaration.

This is because poorer countries have fewer resources to spend on enabling a just transition, and without financial support will be unable to phase out fossil fuel extraction on a timeline consistent with the Paris temperature goal.

[[How does the calculator work out international support? Hover over for a brief explanation|how-support-works]].

The following table illustrates how the costs of phasing out fossil fuel extraction should be shared between self-funding by the countries themselves, and financial support from richer countries, based on the assumptions you selected. This is not the whole of climate finance, as finance is needed also for other forms of mitigation, for adaptation, and for loss and damage. The calculator assumes that support is contributed primarily by the richest people in each country – you can see more details of this on the Country Results page.

Loading…

We’ve noticed that you’re accessing this website in a mobile phone browser. While fully functional on a mobile phone, this site’s user experience is optimized for larger screens (computer or tablet) and will be tricky to navigate on a small screen. We recommend returning to the site on a device with a larger screen.